Entry date: 24-12-2018
According to World Bank’s built-in R dataset, I plotted a simple scatter and line graph showing global carbon dioxide emission from year 1960 to 2014 using the downloaded Plotly package on R. I noted down observations and brief opinions of the plotted graphs.
Figure 1:
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## instead.Observations: There is an overall trend of increase in global carbon dioxide emission from year 1960 to 2014. However, there are instances on the graph illustrating periodic declines in emission of varying degrees from an otherwise smooth upward trend. Notable declines are seen from year 1979 to 1983 and from year 2008 to 2009.
Changes in emission are presented in the bar chart below where I plotted annual percentage change in global carbon dioxide emission from the same time span. Changes were calculated on a yearly consecutive basis.
Figure 2:
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## instead.Observations: Notable periodic declines in carbon dioxide emission as observed in Figure 1 correspond to years on this bar chart where negative percentage changes in emission are observed – for example, year 1979 to 1983 and year 2008 to 2009. In total, there are more increments in emission than drops.
Thoughts: I naturally thought of plotting another graph to show the relationship between economic growth and carbon dioxide emission, as I have always positioned economic growth a culprit of carbon dioxide emission. This has been made known to me through having read articles debating on this matter. It also seems logical when one subscribes to the status quo. Economic growth contributing to carbon emission makes sense to a certain extent – an extent that only stretches as far as our conventionally-known perception of what the best option is in stimulating the global economy. For many years, the status quo has likened the burning of fossil fuels as a prerequisite for economic growth. In present times however, we are entering a period of higher collective socio-environmental awareness where environmental sustainability is increasingly recognized and prioritized. The notion of a business-as-usual trajectory of economic growth and its resulting impact on human survival is not recent news. Yet, it remains difficult to pinpoint the root cause for such a multifaceted problem. Furthermore, the playing out of world future scenarios remains hard to envision. Across the literature, debates persist around theories explaining the growth-environment relationship. Do trends follow the Environmental Kuznets Curve theory, Brundtland Curve hypothesis, or the Environmental Daly Curve hypothesis? Nevertheless, mitigation and adaptation efforts are underway - strategies in “decoupling” economic growth and carbon dioxide emission are gaining widespread attention.
Next, I plotted another scatter and line graph, and bar chart not dissimilar to Figure 1 and 2. This time it focuses on global GDP, which serves as the commonly used measurement for economic growth.
Figure 3:
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## instead.Figure 4:
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## instead.Observations: Again, Figure 3 shows a similar trend to Figure 1 – there is an overall trend of increase in the world’s GDP levels from year 1960 to 2017. In Figure 3, most notable periodic declines in GDP are from year 2008 to 2009 and year 2014 to 2015. This is also seen on Figure 4.
Next, I merged both bar charts, as I wanted to see the relationship in annual changes between carbon dioxide emission and GDP.
Figure 5:
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## instead.Observations: Annual changes in carbon dioxide emission and GDP do not directly correspond to one another. This suggests that there are other variables contributing to the observed changes.
Figure 6:
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## instead.Observations: This time, by plotting global carbon dioxide emission and GDP against each other, we see that as global GDP increase, global CO2 emission increase too.
Thoughts: These graphs are great! They enable me to form a general idea about the relationship between global carbon dioxide emission and GDP - in pictorial format. In summary, global carbon dioxide emission and GDP levels have risen over the years, and both variables seems to be positively correlated with one another. However, while these graphical visualizations are useful, they do not inform us of anything beyond its descriptive aesthetics.
More questions: How else can we expand from these graphs? In referring to Figure 6, what is the magnitude or strength of the relationship, or association between the variables? Can we predict the amount of increase in global carbon dioxide emission based on GDP levels? In my next entry, I seek to explore these questions through statistical analysis.